Policy Papers

Fiscal Policies to Address Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific : Opportunities and Challenges, March 2021, pdf
  Joint with E.Dabla-Norris, J.Daniel, M.Nozaki, C.Alonso, V.Balasundharam, C.Chen, D.Corvino, and J.Kilpatrick
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing policymakers worldwide, and the stakes are particularly high for Asia and the Pacific. This paper analyzes how fiscal policy can address challenges from climate change in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to answer how policymakers can best promote mitigation, adaptation, and the transition to a low-carbon economy, emphasizing the economic and social implications of reforms, potential policy trade-offs, and country circumstances. The recommendations are grounded in quantitative analysis using country-specific estimates, and granular household, industry, and firm-level data.

Fiscal Monitor: Policies for the Recovery, Chapter 2 - Public Investment for the Recovery, October 2020, link
This chapter argues that governments need to scale up public investment to ensure successful reopening, boost growth, and prepare economies for the future. Low interest rates make borrowing to invest desirable. Countries that cannot access finance will, however, need to do more with less. The chapter explains how investment can be scaled up while preserving quality. Increasing public investment by 1 percent of GDP in advanced and emerging economies could create 7 million jobs directly, and more than 20 million jobs indirectly. Investments in healthcare, housing, digitalization, and the environment would lay the foundations for a more resilient and inclusive economy.

Haiti: Selected Issues - Social Protection Spending, 2020, pdf
  Joint with F.Lambert
Haiti is one of the poorest and most unequal societies globally. This paper provides an overview of the current social context in Haiti and coverage and effectiveness of social safety nets. Existing social programs suffer from volatile financing and are fragmented, poorly targeted, and undermined by weak governance. As a new national policy on social protection and development is being prepared by the government, this paper builds on the literature and lessons from recent experiences to examine policy options to effectively reduce poverty and inequality. It argues in favor of a comprehensive strategy focused on a few quasi-universal cash transfer programs with simple demographic and/or geographic targeting. The programs must include systematic annual reports and be supported by a communications strategy and sustainable financing plans.

Haiti: Selected Issues - Energy Sector Reform, 2020, pdf
  Joint with R.Ghayad

Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa : Exploring Different Channels, 2018, pdf
  Joint with F.Arizala, M.MacDonald, M.Mlachila and M.Yenice
After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015–16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth. Regional growth started recovering in 2017, but the question remains of how trends in the economies stuck in low gear will spill over to the countries that have maintained robust growth. This note illuminates the discussion by identifying growth spillover channels. The focus is on trade, banking, financial, remittance, investment, fiscal, and security channels, which are the most prominent and most likely to transmit growth trends across borders. In addition to bringing together findings from a broad array of existing research, the note identifies countries that are the most likely sources of regional spillovers and those that are most likely to be impacted, and provides estimates for the size of these channels. It finds that intraregional trade and remittance flows are an important channel for growth spillovers, while banking channels are less important but will remain a risk going forward. Finally, the note documents other important spillover channels through financial markets contagion, revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies, corporate investment, and forced migration. The main takeaway is that the level of interdependence among sub-Saharan countries is higher than is generally assumed. Consequently, there is a need for additional emphasis on regional surveillance and spillover analysis, along with traditional bilateral surveillance.